Dot Earth Blog: With a Big If, Science Panel Finds Deep Cuts Possible in U.S. Vehicle Emissions and Oil Use

A panel convened by the National Academy of Sciences has concluded that deep cuts in oil use and emissions of greenhouse gases from cars and light trucks are possible in the United States by 2050, but only with a mix of diverse and intensified research and policies far stronger than those pursued so far by the Obama administration.

Sadly, much of the report has a ?same as it ever was? feel, including a push for ?feebates? on efficient vehicles balanced by a surcharge on gas guzzlers (something I wrote about in my 1992 book on global warming):

?Feebates,? rebates to purchasers of high-fuel-economy (i.e., miles per gallon [mpg]) vehicles balanced by a tax on low-mpg vehicles is a complementary policy that would assist manufacturers in selling the more-efficient vehicles produced to meet fuel economy standards.

The report also describes the merits of a gasoline tax or ?price floor? on petroleum-based fuels:

Several types of policies including a price floor for petroleum-based fuels or taxes on petroleum-based fuels could create a price signal against petroleum demand, assure producers and distributors that there is a profitable market for alternative fuels, and encourage consumers to reduce their use of petroleum-based fuels. High fuel prices, whether due to market dynamics or taxes, are effective in reducing fuel use.

For related reading, see ?A Conservative?s Case for a Gas Tax? (2011), ?Fuel Taxes Must Rise, Harvard Researchers Say? (2010; Rush Limbaugh didn?t like this one), ?A 2-Cent Solution to Help Fuel an Energy Quest? (2010) and ?Selling Fuel-Sipping Cars Despite $2 Gas? (2009). [This news article is very relevant: "Days of Promise Fade for Ethanol."

Here's an excerpt from the National Academies news release:

A new National Research Council?report?finds that by the year 2050, the U.S. may be able to reduce petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent for light-duty vehicles -- cars and small trucks -- via a combination of more efficient vehicles; the use of alternative fuels like biofuels, electricity, and hydrogen; and strong government policies to overcome high costs and influence consumer choices.??While achieving these goals will be difficult, improving technologies driven by strong and effective policies could make deep reductions possible.

"To reach the 2050 goals for reducing petroleum use and greenhouse gases, vehicles must become dramatically more efficient, regardless of how they are powered," said Douglas M. Chapin, principal of MPR Associates, and chair of the committee that wrote the report.??"In addition, alternative fuels to petroleum must be readily available, cost-effective and produced with low emissions of greenhouse gases.??Such a transition will be costly and require several decades.??The committee's model calculations, while exploratory and highly uncertain, indicate that the benefits of making the transition, i.e. energy cost savings, improved vehicle technologies, and reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions, exceed the additional costs of the transition over and above what the market is willing to do voluntarily."

Improving the efficiency of conventional vehicles is, up to a point, the most economical and easiest-to-implement approach to saving fuel and lowering emissions, the report says.??This approach includes reducing work the engine must perform -- reducing vehicle weight, aerodynamic resistance, rolling resistance, and accessories -- plus improving the efficiency of the internal combustion engine powertrain.

Improved efficiency alone will not meet the 2050 goals, however.??The average fuel economy of vehicles on the road would have to exceed 180 mpg, which, the report says, is extremely unlikely with current technologies.??Therefore, the study committee also considered other alternatives for vehicles and fuels, including:

• hybrid electric vehicles, such as the Toyota Prius;
• plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, such as the Chevrolet Volt;
• battery electric vehicles, such as the Nissan Leaf;
• hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles, such as the Mercedes F-Cell, scheduled to be introduced about 2014; and
• compressed natural gas vehicles, such as the Honda Civic Natural Gas.

Although driving costs per mile will be lower, especially for vehicles powered by natural gas or electricity, the high initial purchase cost is likely to be a significant barrier to widespread consumer acceptance, the report says.??All the vehicles considered are and will continue to be several thousand dollars more expensive than today's conventional vehicles.?Additionally, particularly in the early years, the report predicts that alternative vehicles will likely be limited to a few body styles and sizes; some will rely on fuels that are not readily available or have restricted travel range; and others may require bulky energy storage that will limit their cargo and passenger capacity.??Wide consumer acceptance is essential, however, and large numbers of alternative vehicles must be purchased long before 2050 if the on-road fleet is to meet desired performance goals.??Strong policies and technology advances are critical in overcoming this challenge.

The report identified several scenarios that could meet the more demanding 2050 greenhouse gas goal.??Each combines highly efficient vehicles with at least one of three alternative power sources -- biofuel, electricity, or hydrogen.??Natural gas vehicles were considered, but their greenhouse gas emissions are too high for the 2050 goal.??However, if the costs of these vehicles can be reduced and appropriate refueling infrastructure created, they have great potential for reducing petroleum consumption.

While corn-grain ethanol and biodiesel are the only biofuels to have been produced in commercial quantities in the U.S. to date, the study committee found much greater potential in biofuels made from lignocellulosic biomass -- which includes crop residues like wheat straw, switchgrass, whole trees, and wood waste.??This "drop-in" fuel is designed to be a direct replacement for gasoline and could lead to large reductions in both petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions; it can also be introduced without major changes in fuel delivery infrastructure or vehicles.??The report finds that sufficient lignocellulosic biomass could be produced by 2050 to meet the goal of an 80 percent reduction in petroleum use when combined with highly efficient vehicles. [Read the rest.]

Source: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/18/with-a-big-if-science-panel-finds-deep-cuts-possible-in-auto-emissions-and-oil-use/?partner=rss&emc=rss

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